Which horse will you back on Grand National day?

Although having a bet on the horses goes against the grain for most people who choose to live a frugal lifestyle, many will make an exception this Saturday – 5th April – when the Grand National takes place.

The Grand National is renowned for being one of the hardest steeple chase races in the horse racing calendar. It was first run in 1839, and apart from the World War years and in 1993, the race has been staged every year. This year will be the 167th Grand National and the prize fund is a record £1million.

It is estimated that between £40m and £80m is bet on the Grand National every year. And if you join www.betfair.com you can get a free £50 bet when you place your first bet on the sports book. Betfair is also offering a £10 refund for any Grand National bets placed on horses that don’t complete the race; which, given the uncertainty of the race’s outcome, is a generous offer!

There are different schools of thought when it comes to narrowing down the field to choose a National winner. The majority of people will not consider the form or stats. Instead, they’ll choose a name that has significance for them – and with so many names to choose from that’s not hard. Before Saturday, you’ll get better prices with antepost betting than you will on the day of the race, but remember, there’s a possibility that you’ll be backing a non-runner.

However, if you do take the statistics of previous Nationals into consideration, you could narrow down the field to realistic chances. In the last three decades, 80% of winning National horses have been aged 9, 10 or 11. Weight is also very relevant in this handicap race – the heavier the weight, the ‘better’ the horse’s form. The average winning weight for the National in the last thirty years has been around 10stones, but many of the recent winners have carried more than this. Just bearing these two stats in mind could help you eliminate some of the longer shots, and give you a reasonable chance of picking the Grand National winner.

Advantage Gambling Play Returns – March 2014

March Returns:

Ongoing:
Ladbrokes OOC 12.09
Betbutler CC 4.67
Jennings e/o 18.89
Tomwaterhouse horse double pay 66.73
Digibet birthday 2.67
Moneybookers cashback 42
Coral e/o 1.5
Coral golf 5.91
Bet365 4/1 16.08
Betfair ref 27.92
Betfred boost/DD 235
Betsafe ref messi 38.88
Titanbet e/o 12.48
Unibet ref 7.42
Misc losses (116.44)

Casino/Games:
WillHill 128.63
Totesport cleo 5
Totesport cash 2.99
Totesport 6.98
Mecca 3.80
Mecca 102
FBP/V 84.05
Coral 1.85
Coral mini 11.30
Betfred iron man 75.80
Grosvenor 4.75
Sky Vegas 3.34
188bet (50)
Misc losses (36)

US:
SBG 10
Betonline 420
Linesmaker 151
Belmont 140

New:
Superlenny 44.06

CHELTENHAM
Day 1:
Casino/Games:
Coral Frankie 60
WillHill 18.70
Betfair misc 8.50

Ongoing:
Boosts Ladbrokes/Betfred 184.93
Betfair double 7.97
Betfair sportsbook 12.58
Genting mug 20
Titanbet sec 5.44
Racebets birthday 50

£368.12

Day 2:
Ongoing:
Boosts Ladbrokes/Betfred/Coral/Jennings 397.47
Ladbrokes OOC 2.31
Betfair place 23.48
Bragbet 17.21
Betdaq double 99.16
Racebets ref 19.02
Starsports fly 84.51
Unibet ref 4.25

New:
Bragbet 12.14

£659.55

Day 3:
Ongoing:
Boosts Ladbrokes/Betfred 253.78
Ladbrokes OOC 2.29
Bet365 4/1 21.57
Racebets ref 22.66
Racebets BTT 10
Betbright FB 19.60
Starsports ref 75.87

Casino/Games:
WilliamHill 4

£408.77

Day 4:
Ongoing:
Boosts Betfred 64.58
Bragbet ref 12.82
Betbright ref 26.49
Betbright ref 26.67
Betbutler cashback 26.44
Ladbrokes OOC 2.57
Racebets ref 17.87
Starsports ref 145.48
Unibet Rf 4.01

Casino/Games:
WilliamHill 5
Betfred 76

£407.93

(misc losses over week £151.59)

CHELTENHAM TOTAL: £1,692.78

March Total: £3,178.13

YTD: £6,412.38
MTH AVE: £2,137.46

An excellent month for me with the highlight being the 4 days of the festival which in large parts were exhausting and frustrating but overall thoroughly enjoyable. Miss it already!

The grind continues onto April, the start of MLB and opportunities offshore; the Premier League title race hotting up and plenty of other stuff to keep us busy.

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